based on Ssectrum report - (Sunday Times 7/1/68)
It is not. generally realised that the national opinion polls are conducted on a very small smple. ‘hilst this seoms to ,roduce fairly consistent results (allowing for some special factors, e.g. declared labour Sotore are not so likely to vote as declared Tory voters, especially if the weather is bod), the figures produced cannot be readily broken down. Spectrum of the Sunday Times has drawn attention this week to an attempt to overcome this weakness. We believe that the results are extremely interesting ond well worth quoting fully:
"By combining the figures of its three moat recent surveys, National Opinion Polls have been able to produce a totul sanple of 5,254 and break it down according to sex, class, age and geographical region. the result is no comfort to Labour. Overall, the swing from Labour +6 Conservative since March 1966 is show as 7-3 per cent. But this average conceals some startling variations. Tien have reucted against the Government twice as violently as women: among them the swing has bw.en 10 per cent.,; compared with 4.9 per cent. for women. The consequence is that, almost for the first time, labour has nearly as much support from women as from men (39 ner cent). Im elass terms, the largest swing his been among Oc voters - skilled Seal workers and their fans lies, (12 per cent.). The lowest swing (1.8 per cent.) has been by AB voters — managerial and professional. Fut this way, the figures exaggerate the differences, as there were proportionately mam fewer Labour AB voters. A truer indication is that whereas one in five of Labour C2 voters in 1966 is now a Conservative supporter, only one in eight of Labour AB voters has changed sides. Among ag@e-groups by far the greatest swing (13.3 per cent) is among the 25-34 group — the young marrieds - previously Labour's best friends, tut especially vulmercble to changes in the economic climate. Geographically, the biggest swings have been in the North of England, while in the South Labour has held more of ite ground. Im political terms, the 14.4 ser cent. in Yorkshire ind Humberside is not as serious as it looks, as this region contains few marginal seate. But the 15.7 per cent. swing reported for the North-West is a mach grecter potential threat, as a high proportion of the Labour seats in LIanecaghire are margin. One interesting aspect is the different impact of nationalism in Wales and Scotland. The Welsh Nationalists are still very small beer, according to the N.0.P. with less than 4 per cent. of the voters — only a third of the support reported for the liberals. But in Scotland they have, for the moment, succeeded in supphaniing the Tories in second place - with 28.3 per cent. compared to 38.7 for Labour and 25.3 for the Conservatives. Despite Labour's by-election loss at Hamilton, these fisures suggest — however tentatively — that the nationalists may be a greater threat to Mr. Heath than to Mr. Wilson."