from ‘World Outlook! of Sept.9th. ee eee
i i ture in-the Ghristian=- The following article was written before the recent Tupt Democrat- Pee sehencerdt conlition.s- it provides useful .background information to these-events. "The political seene in the German Federal “epublic has undergone a change. The victory of the Social-Democratic party in the elections to the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia(NRW) constitutes a denger signal for the Erhard government. It was widely expected that the SPD would gain, but no one forsaw the landslide that gave it 49.5% of the ballots. The Christian Yemocrats, traditionally strong among the Catholic workers and women and therefore always in first place in the Ruhr, the industrial heart of Germany, got only 42.8% of the votes, while the Free Democratic party(bourgeoi s-liberal)registered 7.4%. The Catholic workers deserted their “traditional" party and voted for the only oppositional alternative open to them- the SPD- mainly because of the crisis in coal and steel which looms large despite the general prosperity and shortage of labour. Like their husbands, the women are angry over continuously rising prices. The yearly inflationary rate, as reflected in prices, has in fact topped 4% for the first time. In the mining and steel-producing centres, the SPD gained from 10% to 15%. This is quite unusual in the German political scene, since it gives the party a 60% majority in many of these towns. With the SPD holding 99 out of 200 seats in the Landtag, the outcome has a significance extending beyond the most industrial -ised and densely populated sector of Germany. Erhard, who appeared endowed with almost mythical powers as the creator of the German economic "miracle", suffered a heavy blow to his prestige. For a time opinion was divided in ruling circles o ver what to do. The "Ruhr barons" together with the most reactionary sector of public opinion,- particularly the chain of papers owned by the press king Axel Springer, advocated a three-party coalition, including the Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Free Democrtas. The July 21st "Die Welt'- a daily controlled by Springer, explained quite unabashedly hew this solution would favour the interests of German capitalism-"The people of the Ruhr must finally be told the whole naked truth regarding coal. They must be told in the most direct way the a state depending in a crucial way on the export trade needs cheep energy and that government financial aid in a country that has more than one million foreign workers does not eliminnte the factor of rising costs... Only if the three parties in NRW carry out this task in common can they climinate the fear of competition among themselves... The leading employers are not at all attracted by the thought that the Social “emocrats in NRW could be pushed into a an unnecessarily hard opposition...". In other words, before opting for a coalition solely between the Christian Democrats and “ree Democrats, the bourgeo isie argued over advantages and disadvantages of bringing in the Socinl YVemocrats. The first consideration of those favouring including the SPD was the political desirability of associating the Social Vemocrats with the harsh measures that might well have to be taken in the coming period egainst the miners and steel workers. Another concern was to avoid a situation in which the SPD, deprived of the fruits of victory, moved into a strong oppositional position, while the workers under the pressure of objective forces turned more and more in a radical direction. Finally there was the fear that the SPD, capitalising on its current gains, might move into position to win a majority in the parliament in Bonn in 1969. The hest antidote to that would be to include the SPD in a coalition, thus making sure that it shared responsibility for projecting sntiworking-class measures. The counterarguments finally won the day. The bourgeo isie decided to exclude the
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SPD fron the conlition snd to continue rulinz openly for tuo mein reasons.
First, they ferred that the SPD position in the Bundesrat(something like 2 sen>te)
would be strengt' ened and that this would hamper bourgeois rule on a federsl level,
Secondly, the situstion did not seem danzerous enough for the time being to
require resorting to SPD rule, i.e. utilising the SPD to block the workors
from proceding down the revolutionary rosd. In acdition, they hod convinees
themselves before the eletion that 2 victory for the SPD would mean a
"Seandinavien" situation, with e Social Yemocratic governne:t in office for
decsdes. The German bourgeoisie prefer to avoid that. The Christinn Democrats
elso hope thet they can recover from the setback, perhaps by sacrifi cing
Erhard.
But there nre differences over hor to revitalise the party. One wing hopes that
it can be done through 2n adroit foreign policy. They vant to imitnte “nd even
outdo the SPD which tried to arrange an open discussion with the Communist
Party officialdom of ast Yermeny, This would fit in well with the current
American menoevre of relaxing relxtions vith the USSR in Europe. Although the
SPD move feiled, it wos very popular. Another wing, a very danzerous one heeded
by Franz Joseph Strouss, wonts to stir up the n=tion-list brew, projecting a
"de Yaullist" Germany adhering to "independent" policies well se soned with a
McCarthyite attitude toward the left. One thins is clear- the most solid
position of capitzlism in Western “urope, the German “ederal Republic, received
a ruce shock. It is not at all certain th*t the Christian Yemocrats can succeed
in repairing the demage. The vermen workins class hes estxblished a new opening.
If thoroughly ex»lored and vigorously followed up, it could mean est*blishment of
a "Labour" government by 1969. For the time being the working class hrs no
other electoral alternative but the SPD. It is significant that the "Germen
Peace Union"(DFU), which usually sets the votes of fcrmer Comnunists(the
Communist Party is banned), did not run separate candidates in NRW but celled for
supporting the SPD."