The following is \aken from an extremely frank article written by the special correspondent cf the Financial Times in Saigon, and appearing in their July 19th issues- acs
".eeeThe military experts in Saigon are determined that the Vietcong threat should be contained over the next three months, During this time U.S. air power will be restricted by the monsoon in the Southern part of the country....At present the Viet Cong are on the offensive and have the tactical initiative in almost all areas....American officers say that the ‘overall military equation! is as unfavourable as it has ever been in South Vietnam, noting that the ratio of U.S. and Government troops to Viet Cong is around five to one, whereas ten to one is desirable. The U.S, will not however, be able to derive much advantage from the latest American reinforcements for the time being. The troops take time to become acclimatised,
One American aim during the monsoon period is to deny the Viet Cong conquest of important towns, such as the 40 odd province capitals, In the last couple of months the Viet Cong have, for the first time in the war, captured a few district towns (each province is divided into districts) see. They have been 'knocking off the remote towns at a considerable rate! as one American officer put it and appear to dominate the vast majority of hamlets and villages. Senior American officers state that the Arvins' (South Vietnamese Army) morale is at present'patchy'or'fragile'., Some are openly saying, "How much longer can the Arvin stand up to it?"....American air support has been invaluable to the Arvin, Without it the Viet Cong would have won the war long agOeeecee
Ever since President Diem was murdered in November, 1963, the military have had the power in Saigon. The Government has taken this or that shape according to the decisions of senior officers.... Whatever happens to Ky, from the American point of view it is essential that the military men continue to dominate the Government, as they are likely to; senior officers are not prepared to tolerate the formation of a 'mutralist' Government, 'Neutralism' in South Vietnamese politics is a clearcut political conceptmeaning: a willingness to co-operate with the Communists in forming a Government and asking the Americans to leave the country. Thus the military are obligingly providing the Americans with a political base, which looks stable for some time to come, whatever bickering may go on among them. When one considers what fortunes _s¢ some of them have made in the past, effectively out of American aid, and also what they have to lose in terms of military commands, the : motivation seems quite clear. But there is also a pronounced anti Communism within their ranks, which should not be regarded as opportunism merely. The
Government and this it has inherited, is that the chief problem for the Ky 2 ss thet people do not give the Government strong and visible support.
qd other Governments have not been popular- there is of course no we sR and Government is by decree only= are quite simple, The people are by and large fed up with the war, with conscription, with the bombing and loss of life and destruction of family. And war, including the struggle with the French, has been going on for 20 years. if elections were held in South Vietnam, it is quite possible that a'neutralist! party would sweep the polls. The Head of State, General Thieu, Chief of the National Security Council of five senior officers, the real centre of power, nS a however, announced that there will be no elections for the time being. e Americans also feel that as one official put it ‘elections would be a tragedy." With a large proportion of the country under the control of the
tions are obviously out of the question." Vietcong, elec , he eased
Mills (N.U.R.)