Polls Versus By-election Resulis

The Economist, in its October 23rd issue, examined the claim of Mr. Du Cann, the Tory Party's chairman, that the lead shown in the public opinion polls by Labour is not being repeated in local council by-elections, It dismisses the figure given at the Tory Party Conferences 20 gains as opposed to only 2 losses in 100 contests, as not being “significant.” But. the journal did consider "really significant" the comparison between votes cast in current municipal by-elections and those cast in the national municipal elections last Maye It concludes, "..this comparison obstinately suggests that the Conservatives should be favourites to win any early parliamentary general election," It continues: "Last May those nationwide municipal elections suggested that there had been an average swing against Labour of about 53% since the parliamentary general election last October: a swing sufficient to eject Mr, Wilson from power by a near landslide Conservative majority of near to 200. Local council by-elections in June and July showed almost exactly the same pattern as in May (see a detailed analysis in The Observer of August 15th last of council by-electiow in which over 54,000 total votes were cast), August itself was a closed month for council by-elections; but a round of by-elections in middle and late September, ranging from wards in big cities like Manchester and Leeds to wards in marginal boroughs like Watford and West Hartlepool, showed the same broad pattern, So far there have not been enough by-elections in October to draw any firm conclusion; but the signs are that there is still no change in the pattern of local voting. "On October 7th there was actually a further swing to Conservative at Andover compared with May, although a swing to Labour at Sandwich compared with then; on the same day Labour improved its Maytime vote in a Manchester by-election, but in two smaller towns in the Manchester region (Audenshaw and Dukinfield) the swing was to the Conservatives, Together, the average is one of no net change since May. To emphasise the gulf between the opinion polls and the munidpal by-elections, the Consery, tives celebrated the announcement of Labour's 11 point lead in the Daily Mail National Opinion Poll last Thursday by gaining two more seats that evening, one, in Wallasey, gave them control of the county borough council...." The Economist compares this position with that of last winter, when the public opinion polls were also showing a gain in Labour's popularity since the general election,and local council elections were showing a drop in it. It was precisely at that moment when the Leyton and Nuneaton parliamentary by-elections shattered the self-confidence of Mr. Wilson and his team, The paper points out that the differing predictions will be put to the test when the next parliamentary by-election results come through: those of Westminster on November 4th, and Erith and Crayford, one week later, How can one explain this discrepancy? And what significance has it for Labour? The most likely explanation for the difference between the NOP result and actual voting figures is that in one case the people concerned are passive = one merely answers questions in the NOP -and in one other the people have to be active - actually go and vote. If this is the case the element of apathy and lack of enthusiasm would hit Labour much more. On the other hand, it is well known that local elections evoke a much lower level of interest in Labour voters than parliamentary ones, However, the same could be said for parliamentary by-elections as opposed to General Elections. Pondering over things, Mr. Wilson must be glad of Liberal supporte