from Pat Jordan
The Financial Times of December 18th devoted its second editorial to assessing the significance of the mid-December unemployment figures, Although these registered the lowest December unemployment figures for seven years the paper commented: "there is now the first sign this year that the heavy pressure for labour may be beginning to ease. Between November and December more men were as usual taken on to meet the Christmas build-up in trade but the fall in unemployment was only marginally bigger than would have been expected...This return almost to the seasonal trend stands in marked contrast to what happened during the Autumn. The school-leavers were absorbed by the market unusually fast, and sctual rise in unemployment was less than half what might "normally" be expected.e " However, the Financial Times does not lay this at the Government's doors the position, it says, “cannot yet be put down to the decisions of the new Government. If business has become less keen to recruit this is more likely a delayed reaction to the slow growth of industrial activity over the past 12 months."
It goes on: "From now on, however, the Government will have to face the prospect of a rising unemployment rate..e.ethe signs are that the shortage of credit, the rephasing of investment, and the gencral air of uncertainty may begin to bite on industry fairly soon. ‘his after all is what overseas observers of the British economy are waiting for. There may be a time lag....but it looks fairly certain that the percentage of unemployment will be substantially higher by next autumn than it is nows.e»" The City journal recognises that Labour will find this "politically embarrassing" but doesn't want the Government to be "panicked into rush action", The figures need to be studied. The Finsncial Times arsues that the much of the unemployment is short term and that if Labour's policy of technological development is successful this type of unemployment is bound to increase,
The editorial ends with a plea for the figures "to be studied more coolly than in the past". It notes that there are signs "that the Government, if not all its supporters have accepted this; Mr, Brown is right to press ahead negotistions to provide severance pay for those who become redundant." However, "It is already time for the Government to lay stress on the crucial distinction between short-term and long-term unemployment." The Financial Times does not, of course, find it expedient to say that British big business would welcome some ‘easing of the labour market', but it is arguing for Labour to do nothing to stop rising unemployment when it comese The argument about redundancy or severance payments is an old one: these are designed to take the sharp edge off militant action by the unions to fight unemployment when and where it arises.