ViigTiau baued on PINANCIAL TIMSS reports
President Ngo Dinh Diem's mass arrests of his Buddhist opponents have got him into serious trouble, The Americans, who have been pumping military and economic aid into South Vietnam at the rate gf $400m. a year, have now denounced Diem's “repressive measures," and it is“open question whother President Kennedy will continue to prop up the regime, at least in its pres= sent form, He is - awaiting a report from his new ambassador, Mr Henry Cabot LOdgGee++eeeDiom is part of the privileged 10% Catholic minority of the 15m. population, whose conflict with the Buddhist majority has recently flared up quite literally...e...buddhist agitation, political even more than religious, mounted as,.monks burnt themselves, Diem made some apparent concessions to the Buddhists in June, tut the Amoricans now accuse him of breaking his pledges,
Even the Catholics no longer fully support Diom, and Pope Paul VI is believed to have told him within the last few days to be more moderate, lien like Archbishop Nguyen Van Binh, of Saigon, and Cao Van Luan, the Rector of Hue University, who was recently dismissed on political grounds, are openly expressing their discontent. Diem's allies may one day be reduced to his nutierous brothers whom he has put into responsible posts, Ngo Dinh Nhu, with the help of his wife, runs the secret police, Thuc is Archbishop of the Buddhist citadel of Hue, where he is amassing real estate, Can governs the northern provinces and Luyen is Ambassador in London. fut Mme, Nhu's father Tran Van Chuong, has just resigned his post as Ambassador in Washington in disgust. Corruption, as opposed to nepotism, is not one of Diem's vices, but it is widespread among his underlings, who make big profits on "free gifta" of U.5,. food surpluses,
If Prasident Kennedy drops Diom, it will probably bo because his regime has become more hindrance than a help in fighting off the Communist Viet Cong guerillas, General Harkins, the head of the U.S, military mission of 13,000 has been having a certain amount of success in the paddy fields since ths ~ igmminious defeat at Ap Bac in January. About 6m. peasants have boon regro= uped into 6,000 "strategic hamlets," and, under the “open arms" policy begun in April, more than 7,000 have come from Viet Cong territory over to the Government sido. As the countryside is depopulated, the guerillas are getting short of shelter and supplies. They have taken to attacking the "strategic hamlets," and have for the last months been on the offensive in Mekong Delta, not far from Saigon, Government forces which should have been dealing with it have been used instead against the Buddhists,
But the Viet Cong reaction to increased military aid has been to shift” their campaign over to the political front, Their party is called the National Front of Liberation, and tactics as well as the name are reminiscent of the F.L.N. in the latter stages of the Algvurian war....The danger now is that the disgruntled Buddhists will join forces with the Viet Cong against Diem. The N.F,L. has announced a tempting progranne of “independance, peace, democracy and neutrality." Its ostonsible aim is to liberate tha country from the Americans.,...and to set up a Laos-type noutral regime independent of Commnist North Vietnam, sharing power with the Buddhists,
It is certain that no rogime could survive for long without massive a aid. In 1962, imports came to nearly 5 times as much as exports, and the U.S. paid for the resulting doficit of $150m.....President Diom has alroady beon besieged by parachutists — in November, 1960 - and bombed by his own Filots in February, 1962, He has withstood dimffection within his own ronke but he cannot survive tha withdrawal of American support, Whatever the U.4. does mow, it seoms that in the long run Diem's present political line is untenable. The elections due next month may provide the opportunity for peaceful change. Bd, note: For a fuller analysis see Summer, 1963, issue of I.5.R. —