1416 Even a highly skilled adept with a crystal ball would heaitate to predict the effect upon the date of the General Hlection of the events of the last few weeks, On the one hand the death of Gsiteakell is undoubtedly to the: Tories! advantage (in the short term anyway ) » wiile on the other, the sensational incr ease in the number of unemploysd is definitely note Again Macmillan's speech in Liverpool sould have been the first shot in an election campsign (2s some observers,including the Guardian, speculated) and the increase in retes of pensions and unemployment pay, too, would tend to support the ‘spring election! view.
On closer examination, however, the increase in benefits is shown to be more of a gesture than a real move to court popularity, . The svfact upon the economy will not be that of giving a big stimulus, Whilst £227 millions is put in people's pockets, all tut £28 millions is taken out again by the increase in contributions, Moreover, it is higlly likely that the tlk of the £25 millions will be recouped by savings on National Assistance, 11 those who are in receipt of National Assistance will have that cut by exactly the same amount astthe increase they receive in benefits,
On another front, so far as tie Common larket is concerned tha British ‘tuling class have shown that they do not trust the Labour Party to get Britain —in. For them the best solution would be for the whole matter to be settled before the General Blection, mt, of course, there is now a big question mark ever Britain's entry. The Government seems to be ‘waiting for something to turn up' and is very relictant te give up hope of Britain's early entry. Again it is very difficult to cay how leony it will take France's partners in the Six to get that country's leaders to change their attitude towards Britain's entry. It is all the more difficult to assess because it involves that unpredictable old man, deGaulle. Although he is a heafiache to all and sundry (not least to sections of the French capitalist class which would benefit from Britain's entry) in the contemporary French political scene he is indispensible to the French ruling class because no one else could play his bonapartist role,
If the Government decides that entry is not possible al this stage they will have to come forward with some far-reaching alternative. Tho Geonomist, when discussing an alternativa policy, put forward, among other things, the ending of all import duties (to subject British industry to sharp competition), devaluation of the pound, and/or export aubsidies, A policy of this kind would * both alienate the Six, and need a 'firm' Government to push it throughs
Clearly the bulk of the evidence suggests that an early election is not on the cards, One possibility exists however, that of the Tories deliberately -~calling an election that they know they would lose, and which would confront — the newly elected Labour Government with, in the framework of right-wing poli— cies, insuperable problems, calculating to gat in agsin after a short period. —
Bither way, General Slection or no General lection, entry or no entry; the British ruling class faces a severe crisis of policy, and in this situation they will seek to solve their probiems by on attack on the working class (the press campnign against the power shop stewards could very well be a straw in the wind), The whole establishment paid fulsome to Gaitskell, This was not merely for 'sercices rendered'!, it was mainly directed at the left wing of the Labour Party. Its aim being to create an atmosphere where any left challenge to Gaitskell's moasesgors would seem come kind of blasphemy. Our enemies foar us because they realise we are potentially their main danger, We should live up to their fears by organising the left here and now.