From 'Militant' Oct.15. Continued from issue no.42,
What does Ros, ant vant? Economic forecasting, he opines, “is still an art demanding intuitive talent" and "there is still a lot bo be said for playing hunches, especially when there are no clear signals to follow I know just the man Rossant is looking for. He wears a turban and a false beard and owns a crystal ball. If the 'New York Times' slips him ten bucks, I am sure he will gaze into his crystal ball and come through with an ‘intuitive ' forecast that no recession is in the offing and that it's safe to raise the advertising rates. In the meantime, I'll have to go along with those bourgeois economists who are not afraid to speak out and who now quite openly predict a recession within tho next yoar.
In fact, such a prediction was published just threedays ago in a dispatch to the 'New York Times' from San Francisco. The article by Wallace Turner reporteds:"A survoy among purchasing agents shows unmistakable signs of an approaching recession, the man who made the survey said here today." The forecast was made by no less an authority than &.F.Andrews, chairman of the Business Survey Committoe of the Nationzl Association of Purchasing Agents. The Association has 17,000 membors who represont firms which spend $200 billion a year. The forecast i- based on tho answers these 17,000 purchasing agents gave in tho latost monthly survey by indrow's Committee, The agents report on orders, production, omployment, prices and * ainventories.
"All categories of the survey point downward", Turner reported. He quoted Andrews directly: “If historyis to repeat itself we should go into a recession in early 1963." Tho surveys have beon made since 1934 and unfailingly havé given indications of recossion or boom throe to eight months agoin advance, Androws claimed. Behind tho ‘key indicators" which point the probable short-—torm trend of the cconomy, behind the further slide in the stock market instead of the predicted "post- Labor Day rally", behind the overcaution" of tho professional economists, thero aro cortain long tome deen s TE Pere ae malignant discase in the U.S. profit
The wholesales commodity price index, as distinct from the cost of living, has boon in general decline since the 1947-49 poriod, when the index stood at 100. On Octobar 3rd, it was 79.6. The four biggest stcel corporations last week had to announce price cuts on the West coast following a reduction sot by Kaiser Steel. There is a long-torm increase in business failures. The number of manufacturing firms is lower than it was a decade ago. In 1961, there were 17,075 business filures, the highost since 1933.
There has been a decline in private business investment since 19 7. Manufacturers complain of "overcapacity". During the 1955-57 period, industry expanded its productive capacity 2O0per cent. In the following four years, another 20psr cent was addod. All industry in July was operating at an ostimated 85per cent of capacity. Last week, steel was still operating at only 62 per cent of capacity. The most ominous figure of all is the national unemploymont rato, which last month was 5.8 por cont of the labor force, comparsd to 5.5 per cent in July. It has not been below 4 por cent since May 1957.
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