TRIND OF WORLD TRADS Fave L155 UND aR DV aby BEETS) (Contd. from Issue No 39/40)
Terms of Trade
1950 1955 1961 Industrial countries 94 95 104 Other countries -113 108 98 (Unit value index of exports divided by bnit value index of imports)
The less-developed countries accouyt for about 30% of the total of world trade. One of the principal factors sustaining the volume of their exports in post-war years has been the increase in petroleum; in 1955 this was nearly four times as much as in 1937-38, noarly six times as much as in 1928, Over the ten years 1951-1961 the volume of oil exports rose at an annual average rate of 9 per cent (though the years 1957 and 1958 were affected by the Suez crisis). There were however, reductions in crude oil prices in 1959 and 1960. Industrial countries.
The trond of exports from the industrial countries since the war has fallen roughly into two periods. Up to the early 1950s, North American exports were nearly twice as large as in 19383 by 1951 they had risen by a further 20 per cont. In 1948 Western iturope's exports were still only four-fifths of what they had been in 19383 by 1951 they wore two-fifths greater than in 1938. By 1961 however, both Western duropean and North American exports were just under three times their 1938 volume.
The rise in Western Suropean trade reflects the rapid expansion of industrial production - by 90 per cent between 1950 and 1961, twice the rate of increase in North American production. This expansion, though slowcd down, was not checked in the years of recession in North America in 1954 and 1958. The only year in which Zuropean production was almost stagnant was 1952; this was a year, however, in which North American production increased. Thus expansion in Western “rope during the 1950s has been less affected by the trade cycle in North America than during the 1930s. This has contributed to the relatively smooth increase ia world trade. Trade prospects this year.
World industrial production expanded rapidly in 1961, largely because of the big increase in the United States as it recovered from recession. It déontinued to expand in the early months of this year, and the average level will be substantially above 1961, although the rate of increase during the year will not be as fast as last year's.
High and steadily increasing world industrial production should lead to a gceater demand for industrial materials. Trade between industrial countries seems likely to increase at about the 1961 rate. .ixports from industrial countries in the first quarter of this year wore still rising and about 4 per cent above a yoar earlier. Total world trade should show some further expansion during the year. COMMENT: Some may consider that the above is merely a compilation of facts and statistics which have little relevance to the struggle which faces us. They would be proroundly mistaken for behind the trends shown in. this article is the process which is one of the most revolutionary factors in the world today. The scissors movement in export prices (the tendency of the prices of manufactured goods to rise, waiilst the prices of primary commodities tend to drop) translated human terns means hundreds of thousands, even millions, of peasants getting less and less .in return for their back—breaking labour, whilst at the same time they have to pay more and more for any manufactured goods they necd. To the masses of workers in the.underdeveloped countries it means unemployment and increased exploitation. ‘o both these groups it means that the operat of the world market to bring about an intensification of 'neo-colonialism' “in turn means that the whole basis of - ° their life can be destroyed by processes over which they have not the slightest control. It is the ‘anarchy of the market! on a higher level and in itself demos trates the moribundness of capitalism. Translated into political terms these ~ processes mean that there can be no political statility in the underdeveloped countries whilst these countries remain subordinate to the world market. ‘Toget the human, economic and political consequences provide a motor force for ths whole colonial revolution. Moreover, as recession hits the West andeach capitalist state attempts to broak out of the problems created by stagnation and competition the process will be intensified. We can therefore say that for a whole period the colonial revolution will tend to deepen and become more 'social' insofar as it is forced to choose the socialist path by the very nature of the problems that face it. We can, therefore, expect more and more 'Cubas' with all the consequences that will flow.
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