The now famous Orpington by-clection has provoked many comments and alt Bolt tion’ scribes have by now interpreted the result, usually finding ovide— nee in doing so to back up their own particular line, Thus we read in the Reynolds an impassioned appeal for the sinking of differences within the Labour Party, in the Hconomist a call for Gaitskell to.transform the Labour Party into a 'Kennedy like't second party, the Daily Mirror, characteristically enough, jumps on the Liberal Party bandwagon and various people point out what a defeat for the vobetts BAT ty the result was. There is no doubt that the Orpington by-election has le *bolitics in a confused and fluid state, but what are the real lessons for those to whom Parliamentary elections, general or by-election type, have a very limited significsnoe anyway?
Firstly, the result was an unqualified and oxtraordinary vote of no= confidence in the Government from a traditionzl and typical Conservative Party stronghold, and taken in conjunction with the Blackpool by-election result shows a massive and decisive swing from the Tory Party. If a senss of principle played any part in politics the Tories would resign immediately and call a general election. This fact is clear to all and could make a rallying point for massive anti-Government agitation. Instuad our Parliamentary leadership have got vory angry about the number of people present at the count. Secondly, honest appreciation of the by-clection events (including those of Lincoln and Middlesborough) mak’s nonsense of the Gaitskoll argument that it is necessary to don a liboral guise to win clections. In actual fact whatsis proved that whers thers is a basis for a large liberal vote people will vote for authentic thing. On the other hand in industrial or semi industrial constituencies like Middlesborough and Lincoln we sec that the liberals gained 4 times as many votes from the Tories in Lincoln than from Labour —- in Middleshorough the figure was 22 times as many votes from the Tories as from Labour. It is not without significance that both these towns have ssen militant action by the working class in the last few months with t..g consequent revitalisation of the workers movoment. Thus even from a purely election point of view the results of Orpington ot al give an argument not for the adoption of a less decisive policy but a more docisive one.
The long term effects of the Orpington by-election are difficult to assess, There is no doubt that now the Liberal Party is seen as being more serious consequently, many people who would not vote Liberal because they considered it a wasted vote will do so in future, On the other hand, Hailsham was right when he said people do not know what the Liberal Party stands for, only on one issue has it a clear cut attitude as distinct from the other parties, That is in on the Common liarket - it is unequivocably for entry. Paradoxically enough, this fact prevents it from filling the placs that does exist for a third party in Britain, There is indeed a place, for the timo being anyway, for a farmers! party in Britain based upon decisive opposition to entry into tho Common Markot. Whether one will arise is dubious, What effect the loss of so many votes will have on the Tories is hard to say. No doubt the Tories calculated on a high degres of unpopularity, anyway,when they ombarked on their present policies, They calc ulate on things being better by the time the next election comes along. So far as tle Labour Party is concerned both left and right will seek to use the results to back their arguments. lHowevor it looks as though the right are going to be much more vigourous about this than the left. We must seek to give the left the impulse around the goneral perspective slogan of TORINS - OUT! SOCIALISM Iv!
P.J. 19/3/62
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